Hydroelectric power projects with aggregate capacity of 15 GW under construction
Hydro capacity to increase from 42 GW today to 67 GW by 2031-32, marking an
increase of more than 50 percent
Good monsoon in FY 2024-25 as per IMD prediction to contribute to improvement
in water reservoir levels
Hydroelectric
power projects with aggregate capacity of 15 GW are under construction in the
country. The hydro capacity is likely to increase from 42 GW to 67 GW by
2031-32, marking an increase of more than half of present capacity.
The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted higher
rainfall in the current financial year. Further, hydropower projects located in
the Himalayan region get base flow from contribution of snowmelt, i.e., from
surface runoff produced by melting snow; so, any rise in temperature will
increase snowmelt contribution.
Moreover, given the ongoing energy transitions in the
country, the development of Pumped Storage Projects (PSPs) assumes importance
for providing greater inertia and balancing power to the grid. PSPs are also
known as ‘the Water Battery’, which is an ideal complement to modern clean
energy systems.
Currently, PSPs with aggregate capacity of 2.7 GW are
under construction in the county and another 50 GW is under various stages of
development. It is projected that PSP capacity shall increase from 4.7 GW to
around 55 GW by 2031-32.
Why the Fall in
Hydro Power Generation in 2023-24
The fall in hydro power generation in 2023-24 as compared
to 2022-23 cannot be attributed solely to less rainfall. In the southern
region, which contributes approximately 22% of the total hydro energy
generated, low rainfall has indeed played a role. However, the hydroelectric
power projects in Northern and Eastern regions, comprising over 60% of total
hydro energy generation, have been severely impacted by natural disasters in
2023-24. In July 2023, Himachal Pradesh experienced flash floods, disrupting the
operation of many power stations in the area. Besides, flash floods in the
Eastern region in October 2023 have further hindered the operation of several
hydro power stations, thus affecting the generation severely.
Hydrology of any river basin is variable and follows some
period of alternate wet and dry spells. Lower rainfall in the past does not
mean that the same type of the rainfall will necessarily occur in the future as
well.
Potential for
Replenishment of Capacity in Water Reservoirs
While the lightest rainfall since 2018 resulted in
reduced water levels in a few reservoirs, the government is reasonably
optimistic about the future.
The prediction by the IMD of good monsoon in FY 2024-25
suggests a potential reversal of the trend. This anticipated increase in
rainfall could contribute to replenishment of reservoir capacities which were
lost during the scarce rainfall in the previous year.
Further, the current downturn may be temporary rather
than indicative of a long-term decline.
Contribution of
Hydro to Power System
It is important to recognize that the country is in the
midst of an energy transition, marked by significant additions of solar and
wind power to the current energy mix. Further, power from solar energy is
available during the time of the day that does not coincide with the peak power
demand.
Hydroelectric power has always played a significant role
in the energy landscape of the country, providing essential peaking support to
the electricity grid, thus enhancing the reliability and resilience of the
power system.
Share of Hydro in
Total Energy Mix and Pace of Addition of Hydro Capacity
The development of hydro power projects has been marred
by various issues such as natural calamities, geological surprises and
contractual disputes, which have resulted in slower hydro capacity addition in
recent years.
Nevertheless, aligning with the ambitious targets set
forth by India in the Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDC) under the COP Paris agreement, which
are aimed at reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by the
year 2030 and achieving 50% of installed electric power capacity from
non-fossil-fuel sources by the year 2030, the government has adopted a
proactive stance towards hydro power development, striving for accelerated
progress.
Growth in India’s
Renewable Energy Capacity
India’s renewable energy capacity has increased
significantly in recent years. As on 30.11.2021, the installed Renewable Energy
(RE) capacity of the country stood at 150.54 GW (solar: 48.55 GW, wind: 40.03
GW, Small hydro: 4.83 GW, Bio-power: 10.62 GW, Large Hydro: 46.51 GW) while its
nuclear energy based installed capacity stood at 6.78 GW. This brings the total
non-fossil-based installed energy capacity to 157.32 GW, which is 40.1% of the
total installed electricity capacity of 392.01 GW at the time. Thus, India has
overachieved its commitment made at COP 21 Paris Summit by achieving more than
40% of its installed power capacity from non-fossil fuels, almost nine years
ahead of its commitment.
India is the only G20 country that has fulfilled all
commitments it made in Paris on climate change.
Subsequent to this, India upgraded its commitments under
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in Glasgow COP26 and in August 2022
communicated its updated NDCs to UNFCCC, which includes:
- To put
forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living
based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including
through a mass movement for ‘LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ as
a key to combating climate change.
- To
reduce Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030, from 2005
level.
- To
achieve about 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from
non-fossil-fuel-based energy resources by 2030, with the help of transfer
of technology and low-cost international finance including from Green
Climate Fund (GCF).
At the same time, India is targeting to achieve renewable
energy capacity more than the committed capacity of 50% from non-fossil
sources, by the year 2030. In order to meet 500 GW non-fossil fuel generation
capacity, transmission plan has already been prepared and bids for renewable
energy capacity have been finalized.
All-India Renewable Energy Generation (excluding Large
Hydro) has increased steadily from 61.7 billion units in 2014-15 to 225.5
billion units in 2023-24 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.47%.
Similarly, the growth in Renewable Energy Installed
Capacity (excluding Large Hydro) has increased from 38.96 GW as on 31.03.2015
to 136.57 GW as on 29.02.2024, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of
14.94%.
Also, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of All India
Solar Power Generation from 2014-15 to 2023-24 is 42.97%.